In this paper, we explore the proliferation, assumptions, motivation, and behavior of various substitution models of the technological diffusion process. The underlying notion is that such an understanding helps the model user to choose the most appropriate model for the situation. This paper discusses the development, motivation, and assumptions of various deterministic and binary substitution models and compares them on the basis of their three mathematical characteristics. Further, it is shown that the study of the interrelationships between the models is useful in narrowing the choice. The behavior of the models is studied through an illustration of diffusion of innovative oxygen-steel technology in Spain and in litnan.

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Keywords innovation, mathematical modeling, model selection, substitution models, technological forecasting, Technological innovation diffusion
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Journal IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management
Kumar, U, & Kumar, V. (1992). Technological Innovation Diffusion: The Proliferation of Substitution Models and Easing the User’s Dilemma. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 39(2), 158–168. doi:10.1109/17.141273