Adaptation and validation of an existing bottom-up model for simulating temporal and inter-dwelling variations of residential appliance and lighting demands

The design and analysis of community-scale energy systems and incentives is a non-trivial task. The challenge of such undertakings is the well-documented uncertainty of building occupant behaviours. This is especially true in the residential sector, where occupants are given more freedom of activity compared to work environments. Further complicating matters is the dearth of available measured data. Building performance simulation tools are one approach to community energy analysis, however such tools often lack realistic models for occupant-driven demands, such as appliance and lighting (AL) loads. For community-scale analysis, such AL models must also be able to capture the temporal and inter-dwelling variation to achieve realistic estimates of aggregate electrical demand. This work adapts the existing Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology (CREST) residential energy model to simulate Canadian residential AL demands. The focus of the analysis is to determine if the daily, seasonal, and inter-dwelling variation of AL demands estimated by the CREST model is realistic. An in-sample validation is conducted on the model using 22 high-resolution measured AL demand profiles from dwellings located in Ottawa, Canada. The adapted CREST model is shown to broadly capture the variation of AL demand variations observed in the measured data, however seasonal variation in daily AL demand behaviour was found to be under-estimated by the model. The average and variance of daily load factors was found to be similar between measured and modelled. The model was found to under-predict the daily coincidence factors of aggregated demands, although the variance of coincident factors was shown to be similar between measured and modelled. A stochastic baseload input developed for this work was found to improve estimates of the magnitude and variation of both baseload and peak demands.