Using Dynamic Factors to Predict Recidivism Among Women: A Four-Wave Prospective Study
Using a sample of 497 Canadian women released into the community from federal prisons, this study examined the extent to which seven dynamic risk factors prospectively assessed at 6-month intervals (four waves) change over time and predict recidivism. Results obtained from a series of within-subject ANOVAs indicate that with the exception of substance abuse, all dynamic risk factors (i.e., employment, marital/family, community functioning, personal/emotional, criminal associates, and criminal attitudes) decreased among those offenders who did not recidivate. In addition, results obtained from a series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates also indicate that proximal assessments of dynamic risk predict recidivism more strongly than more distal assessments of dynamic risk. Employment and associates were the strongest dynamic predictors of recidivism, whereas the remaining factors were weak-to-moderate predictors of recidivism. This study lends support to the utility of repeatedly assessing dynamic risk factors among female offender populations.
|Keywords||dynamic risk, female offenders, predictive validity, risk assessment|
|Journal||Criminal Justice and Behavior|
Greiner, L.E. (Leigh E.), Law, M.A. (Moira A.), & Brown, S. (2015). Using Dynamic Factors to Predict Recidivism Among Women: A Four-Wave Prospective Study. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 42(5), 457–480. doi:10.1177/0093854814553222