This article develops and tests a simple theory of demographic dynamics and economic take-off. It shows that demographic change has a threshold effect, and that China's population policies moved this threshold effect (i.e., the timing of economic take-off) forward by more than a decade. The impact of China's population-control policies on China's economic growth may be twice as large as what is estimated by the traditional econometric method.
Chinese Economy
Carleton University

Yu, Z. (2011). Demographic dynamics and economic take-off: Economic impact of China's population-control policies. Chinese Economy, 44(1), 72–90. doi:10.2753/CES1097-1475440105