This article develops and tests a simple theory of demographic dynamics and economic take-off. It shows that demographic change has a threshold effect, and that China's population policies moved this threshold effect (i.e., the timing of economic take-off) forward by more than a decade. The impact of China's population-control policies on China's economic growth may be twice as large as what is estimated by the traditional econometric method.

Additional Metadata
Persistent URL dx.doi.org/10.2753/CES1097-1475440105
Journal Chinese Economy
Citation
Yu, Z. (2011). Demographic dynamics and economic take-off: Economic impact of China's population-control policies. Chinese Economy, 44(1), 72–90. doi:10.2753/CES1097-1475440105