Demographic dynamics and economic take-off: Economic impact of China's population-control policies

This article develops and tests a simple theory of demographic dynamics and economic take-off. It shows that demographic change has a threshold effect, and that China's population policies moved this threshold effect (i.e., the timing of economic take-off) forward by more than a decade. The impact of China's population-control policies on China's economic growth may be twice as large as what is estimated by the traditional econometric method.

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