Although Aboriginal offenders are overrepresented in Canadian prisons, there is limited research examining the extent to which commonly used risk factors and risk scales are applicable to Aboriginals. Aboriginal (n = 88) and non-Aboriginal (n = 509) sex offenders on community supervision were compared on the dynamic risk factors of STABLE-2007. Data on sexual, violent, any crime, and any recidivism (including breaches) were collected with an average follow-up of 3.4 years. Aboriginal offenders scored significantly higher than non-Aboriginal offenders on STABLE-2007 total scores and on several items measuring general criminality. STABLE-2007 did not significantly predict recidivism with Aboriginal offenders (although it did for non-Aboriginals). The general antisociality items were generally significantly less predictive for Aboriginals than non-Aboriginals, whereas items assessing sexual self-regulation and relationship stability predicted similarly for both groups. These exploratory results suggest that Aboriginal sex offenders are a higher-needs group but that some STABLE-2007 items are not predictive with this population.

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Keywords Aboriginal offenders, dynamic risk factors, predictive accuracy, risk assessment, sex offenders
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Journal International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology
Helmus, L. (Leslie), Babchishin, K.M. (Kelly M.), & Blais, J. (2012). Predictive accuracy of dynamic risk factors for aboriginal and non-aboriginal sex offenders: An exploratory comparison using STABLE-2007. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 56(6), 856–876. doi:10.1177/0306624X11414693